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| Crunch Time for Statistics |
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The headline ran ‘Experian reports first increase in business failures for over 12 months’ – and while nationally that is arguably correct, Andrew Metcalf of Maxim, suggests it is not the only story?
A quick look behind the Experian statistics and it supports the case that companies should look to regionalise their stories if they are to position themselves as expert commentators.
The suggestion in the story is that the credit crunch is having a negative impact on UK businesses, with corporate failures in the UK increasing for the first time in over 12 months - according to Experian, the global information services company. It appears that business failures in the UK increased by 8.5 per cent in the first three months of 2008, the first increase recorded since the end of 2006.
That’s the national picture, but it’s not the whole picture – and that’s why statistics can be misleading and too often see the press jumping on them if they can be made to fit their current position on an issue or political persuasion.
Interestingly, in the South East, business failures for the same period are down 5.2 per cent – which is good news, especially given the significance of the region to the UK’s economy – but that story may never have left Experian’s Nottingham HQ press office.
Looking at the survey, you would rightly expect bad news headlines in East Midlands and Northern Ireland where business failures were up 53.6% and 51.9% respectively, and even in the North West where they increased by 24.7%.
However, a number of regions, in addition to the South East, are appearing to buck the trend, with the South West 7.5% less than last year and the City of London’s performance improving by 24.3%.
And that brings me to my first point: good news doesn’t sell and at the moment we’re all doom and gloom, thanks largely to the economic downturn and decisions of Mssrs Brown and Darling, such as the Capital Gains Tax fiasco and 10p tax rate climbdown.
Now there is undoubtedly truth in the credit crunch and its effects are to be seen. The 100% mortgage is now as common as ‘hen’s teeths’ and many Banks are now more interested in borrowing from the public than lending to them, making it harder for potential homebuyers to secure funds or existing ones to re-mortgage at the end of their term.
News from high street retailers also isn’t good either, especially from those selling the big ticket items more associated with house moves and not a spontaneous purchase. But it can’t all be the fault of the credit crunch?What about the poor April weather and the early Easter, have we all forgotten last year’s spring heatwave which put a smile on our faces and got us out of the house?
However, and here’s the dangerous part, to paraphrase Joseph Goebbels: “If you tell somebody often enough then they’ll believe it”. And that’s what’s happening and there’s a real risk of us walking into recession and proving all the pundits right.
If we were advising Experian I’d suggest the average journalist doesn’t have the time to sift through the national survey results looking for a possible story, but rather needs to know in the first paragraph why they should read on. It’s a case of ‘one size doesn’t fit all’. So if they are trying to secure coverage in the regional media – give them the regional story and then go on to tell them how it compares to the rest of the UK.
Like most people these days, the press are under pressure to hit ever and deadlines. If you make their lives easier by delivering good strong and appropriate stories, they will use them and keep using them. |
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